It may not be news when John Boehner organizes a fundraiser for the Republican candidate in a throwing district. Cook`s bipartisan policy report currently ranked the Colorado Senate race as a success. The race is currently seen as a boost by outside observers and polls give Ernst and Braley in dead heat. Government polling data has also consistently given Obama the edge. According to realclearpolitics.com, Obama currently leads 26 states and the District of Columbia with a total of 322 electoral votes; McCain currently leads in 24 states with a total of 216 electoral votes. Obama leads in every state supported by John Kerry in 2004, as well as in seven states backed by George Bush: Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, Indiana, Virginia, Nevada and Colorado. Obama, meanwhile, also went door-to-door, taking a satellite tour of local stations in the states of Tossup. With Google`s Ngram Viewer, there was an increase in the use of the term in 1980, before a significant jump in the very close presidential election in 2000. Swing state was from the 1960s a more popular term for states highly contested in presidential politics. FiveThirtyEight`s long-standing “official” definition of a throw is a race where both sides have less than a 60% chance of winning, although in some texts that the interactive prediction automatically generates, we used a 55% threshold instead. The election is expected to be a blow to this heavily Cuban-American district in South Florida.
In politics, the similar term “balloting” is often used, although the definition is vague. We are even inconsistent in how we use it ourselves.2 Obama leads in 11 of the 12 swing states decided by a margin of five points or less in 2004, including five of the six supported by George Bush. And while Obama has a comfortable lead in every state that John Kerry won by more than five points in 2004, McCain finds himself in an uphill battle in a number of states that Bush led by more than five points, including red states like Indiana, Montana, North Dakota. Virginia and North Carolina. For example, even when Republicans won 66 percent of House races in 2010, Democrats 71 percent modeling, another challenge is that Democrats defied political gravity. The president`s party usually performs poorly in midterm elections. There have been a few exceptions, and there is reason to believe that this year could be one of them. But the model attempted to weigh polls showing Democrats are having a pretty good year compared to their previous expectations that the electoral environment should be bad for Democrats. And remember that these June and July polls may underestimate Obama`s eventual lead. Ronald Reagan did not take advantage of the enormous structural advantage enjoyed by the Republicans in 1980 until after the conventions and the presidential debate. It took some time and a sufficient level of comfort with the challenger for the anti-Carter votes to translate into support for Reagan.
If Obama`s performance over the past eighteen months is any indication, a similar trend is likely to unfold in 2008. That`s not to say it was wrong: In fact, the Democrats had a string of excellent election results and special ballots where they matched or exceeded their polls. If you had held the midterm elections at the end of August, I would have relied heavily on the Democrats to win the Senate. It would certainly be nice to have one or two special elections now and see how those voting changes translate into real results. Polls can sometimes change for reasons that do not reflect the underlying reality of the race, such as partisan response bias or pollster rankings. However, the most competitive House and Senate races don`t always break out to the same party in a given year. Obviously, a one-tenth of a percentage point lead is not much. The advantage may have returned when you read this. But the undecided general vote exaggerates the arguments in favor of the Democrats. That`s because our poll average takes generic polls as they come from, which are a combination of polls of likely voters, registered voters and all adults.
However, our model takes an additional step and adjusts the polls of registered and adult voters to make them more similar to the polls of likely voters, who were more favorable to Republicans this year. Thus, a tie on the general ballot among all polls means a slight advantage of the GOP over the likely adjustment of voters. Horse racing results aside, there are signs of a growing Democratic Party lead in the electorate. A recent Rhodes Cook analysis of voter registration data in 29 states and the District of Columbia allowing party registration shows that since November 2004, Democratic registration has increased by nearly 700,000, while Republican registration has decreased by nearly one million. But let`s be realistic. If a friend asked me to describe the Senate race, I would say, “It`s damn close,” pointing out that neither party has much of an advantage. Here`s why. How to translate a chance of about 60% into words is tricky because it`s just at the threshold where you can point out that a party is ahead or close enough to 50-50. Poker players use the term “flip” (short for “coin or tail”) when two hands have about the same chance of winning, even if the odds are not exactly the same.
For example, most players would refer to this poker hand as a “flip”, even though the pair of 10 would win 57% of the time. In 2004, “Battleground State” surpassed the Swing State in popularity, but both terms are still used by most journalists. Another thing that makes it difficult to convey this year`s forecasts in plain English is that there are three perfectly plausible scenarios: a Republican sweep of Congress, a Democratic sweep, or a divided Congress (which would imply a Democratic Senate and GOP House rather than the other way around). Until recently, a divided Congress had the most likely of the three scenarios, even if the chances of that outcome were less than 50 percent. Now, however, a sweep of the GOP (41 percent) is more likely than a split (38 percent): While no election outcome is guaranteed and McCain`s prospects may improve over the next three and a half months, virtually all the evidence we`ve looked at — historical trends, structural features of this election cycle, and national and state polls conducted in recent months — points to a comfortable victory for Obama and the Democratic Party in November. Trumpeting this race as a throw that will almost certainly produce another agonizing ending distorts the evidence and does a disservice to readers and viewers who rely on such experts. As the election approaches, less the model relies on his track record and trusts polls more, so he was initially skeptical about involvement in a post-Dobbs Democratic ascent. However, just as the model had fully priced in the improvement in Democrats` approval ratings in the polls, the news cycle shifted to a series of Republican-friendly stories, such as immigration and renewed inflationary concerns.